Análise do fluxo de caixa do regime geral da previdência social, no período 2018-2021

Abstract

This study aims to compare the collection, expenses, and results of the FRGPS in two periods: (2018-2019) and (2020-2021), as well as analyze the relationship between these variables and socioeconomic variables (2018-2021). A quantitative, descriptive, and documentary research was used, with data treated by Wilcoxon test of means between two dependent samples and Spearman correlation, with a significance level of 5%. The result of the Fund of the General Social Security System (FRGPS) was negative in the period (2018-2021). The annual evolution showed an increase (5.75%) in collections, while expenses are growing, but at a decreasing rate, reaching their maximum in 2019. The Wilcoxon test suggests that there were no significant differences in revenue, expenses, and results between the two periods. As for the correlation analysis, there was a significant inverse association between tax collection and the proportion of contributors to the labor force and the income growth, and a positive and significant association with the increase in the number of contributors. Expenses showed an inverse and significant association with growth in the number of contributors. The result shows a positive and significant correlation between the increase in contributors and an inverse correlation with income growth. The pandemic (number of contaminated and Covid-19 deaths) is negatively associated with revenue and outcome and positively with benefit payment expenses, but not significantly so. This research contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the elements of cash flow occurring in a troubled pandemic period and the effects of the 2017 labor reform.