A política energética brasileira avaliada pela perspectiva da interdependência do gás natural boliviano (2006–2018)

Abstract

This monograph analyzes how the energy relationship between Brazil and Bolivia transformed between 2006 and 2018, a period marked by Bolivia’s nationalization of hydrocarbons and the restructuring of the Brazilian natural gas market. From the perspective of complex interdependence proposed by Keohane and Nye (2012), it investigates how simultaneous changes in Bolivian supply and Brazilian adaptation capacity altered the balance of this relationship. The analysis employs the concepts of sensitivity and vulnerability applied to integrated energy systems. The research seeks to answer how Brazilian energy policy redefined the asymmetry of interdependence with Bolivia, converting vulnerability into autonomy during the period studied. The qualitative approach and the case study method allow discussion of how Brazilian regulatory, logistical, and institutional decisions produced material and diplomatic effects that reshaped the relative positions of the two countries. The results demonstrate that the reconfiguration of the Brazilian market, combined with the structural weakening of the Bolivian energy sector, shifted negotiating power in favor of Brazil, reduced historical vulnerabilities, and transformed a rigid dependence into a more manageable and asymmetric interdependence. In the South American context, the Brazil–Bolivia case also illustrates how energy interdependence shapes political, economic, and diplomatic relations, influencing everything from contractual negotiations to physical integration projects.