A relação entre o endividamento das famílias brasileiras e o ambiente socioeconômico

Abstract

The growing household debt in Brazil has become a significant socioeconomic challenge, with a sharp increase since the economic recession that began in 2014. This study aims to analyze the relationship between Brazilian household debt, by income bracket, and the socioeconomic environment, from January 2014 to June 2024. We employed a quantitative, descriptive, and documentary research approach, using quantile regression for data analysis. Exploratory analysis indicates that credit cards are the primary source of household debt in Brazil. Quantile regression revealed that socioeconomic indicators affect households with incomes up to ten minimum wages differently than those with higher incomes, and by quantiles. The debt of lower-income households showed a positive and significant relationship with default and an inverse relationship with the unemployment rate for all quantiles, while higher-income households showed a positive relationship with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the exchange rate for all quantiles. The pandemic, measured by the number of new deaths, affected the debt of both groups, considering the proportions of lower debt (Q25%), while the number of new cases of contamination affected households with higher debt (Q75% and Q95%). This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating how socioeconomic variables affect debt differently by intensity and income level. It provides stakeholders with insights to define strategies for reducing debt.