A expansão da atuação chinesa no sistema financeiro global e os custos de internacionalizar o Renminbi

Abstract

The general aim of this paper is to investigate the process of internationalization of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB), since the international financial crisis of 2008, in the light of the theory of complex interdependence. This work is justified by the need to understand not only the consequences of the internationalization of the RMB for the global financial system, but also to understand the strategies and methods adopted throughout this process, which is still far from over. The central question guiding this study is: what are the costs of RMB internationalization for China's power projection objectives? The initial hypothesis suggests that the PRC's active promotion of RMB internationalization is linked to a broad effort to try to create greater stability in the global financial system, offering a solid and stable alternative in the event of financial crises and vulnerabilities in the current international financial system, making China the pioneering state in this change. This is a qualitative study that uses the deductive method, as it starts from the theoretical variables of the complex interdependence theoretical perspective proposed by Keohane and Nye (2011) - namely sensitivity and vulnerability - to assess Chinese efforts after 2008. Throughout this work, the historical analysis reveals a significant trajectory in the internationalization of the RMB, spanning decades. This process demonstrates the Chinese government's meticulousness in assessing the costs involved and its sensitivity, as well as the careful consideration given to the vulnerability associated with economic transformations on the international stage. The deep understanding and strategic care adopted by the Chinese leadership over time reveal a very deliberate approach in the quest to internationalize its currency. From this, it can be concluded that the process of internationalization of the RMB does not rely solely on the goodwill of China and its partners but involves complicated costs and adaptations.