Análise da relação entre benefícios de risco da previdência social e ambiente socioeconômico: no período de 2014 a 2022

Abstract

The risk benefits provided by Social Security (PS), according to Public Finance Theory, can be affected by endogenous and exogenous factors. In this sense, this study aims to identify the socioeconomic variables associated with the amount and values of risk benefits granted by PS, in the period from Jan.2014 to Jul.2022. Quantitative, descriptive, documentary research was used, using exploratory data analysis and association (Spearman), considering as proxies: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); unemployment rate; the number of people infected (Sars-Cov-2); the number of deaths by Covid-19; and average income. The results indicate that the proxies with the most significant and inverse associations were contagion, deaths, the existence of a pandemic, and pension reform. The GDP showed an inverse and significant relationship only with the average value of the rural benefit, while income showed a direct relationship with this value. The reduction in the number of risk benefits granted may be related to the difficulties of infrastructure, personnel, and technology for the concession in the period of social isolation. These results contribute to the expansion of discussions about the influence of socioeconomic conditions on the granting of risk benefits, in the period of the pandemic and social security reform, which practically occur concomitantly. And they highlight that the socioeconomic environment can influence the request for risk benefits, contributing to public policies. There has also been a reduction in the average value of the disability benefit, due to the new social security rules. This pressures the insured to build up a financial reserve in case of sick leave of more than 15 days.