A política de incentivos fiscais em Goiás: uma análise do desenvolvimento regional sob a perspectiva da teoria do bem-estar social

Abstract

This study analyzes the effectiveness of the tax incentive policy in Goiás for regional development, from the perspective of Social Welfare Theory. A mixed-method approach was employed, analyzing data from 245 municipalities in Goiás during the period from 2013 to 2023. The quantitative methodology applied the Pearson Correlation between the Firjan Municipal Development Index (IFDM) and variables regarding tax incentives and ICMS revenue collection. The results reveal a dual reality: on one hand, strong and positive correlations in consolidated industrial hubs (such as Anápolis and Aparecida de Goiânia) indicate success in attracting investments. However, the policy did not promote balanced development, concentrating benefits in already dynamic areas (Center, South, and East mesoregions). The analysis demonstrated that the policy was statistically null and irrelevant for 113 municipalities (46.12% of the state), affecting the North (74.07% null) and Northwest (65.22% null) regions most severely. It is concluded that the policy was efficient in attracting capital, but inefficient in distributing development equitably under the lens of Social Welfare Theory. This model of concentrated development is now challenged by the Tax Reform (Constitutional Amendment No. 132/2023).